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We are now a long 7 months into the Pandemic with people still buying and selling homes, despite the different challenges involved!

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years.

  • Median and average house values continued to rise, while condo values were relatively flat.
  • Increase in the number of sales, and of higher-price home sales in particular.
  • Overbidding declined a little.
  • The % of sales sold shows an 80% monthly sell through of inventory on higher priced homes.
  • Average days on market continued to be very low; if anything for many homes this has speeded up as buyers want to be done looking and just buy a home!!
  • The one soft spot in the market as of the last few weeks is condos, so it’s an easier time for these buyers.

Median House Sales Price by Year

In dollar terms, the increase in median house sales price has been remarkably consistent over the past 7 years, after the big jump in 2013 when the recovery really kicked into gear.

This chart below always gets me as the chart looks insane…. like the stock market, to go back up you have to go up further than you went down. This is the Annual Year-over-Year Change in Median House Sales Price, and yes the overall data still shows prices going up but we expect this number to settle.

Median Condo Sales Price by Quarter

As has been the case in almost all the major markets in the Bay Area, the condo segment in the Inner East Bay region has been somewhat weaker than the house market. I am pretty sure the data will soon show price declines based on current market activity.

Selected Supply & Demand Indicators

For those getting ready to sell and asking questions about the best time to be on the market, below is some perspective on activity during previous years.
Typically May and October have the highest inventory, We had significant delays this year and inventory still relatively generous and selling.
Sellers have historically done best when they are not competing with lots of others sellers…. this is a hard data point to depict but true!

The Mortgage Interest Rates continue to be compelling….. below is the trend since the end of 2018.

Do contact me if I can be of assistance to you, your friends, family or colleagues!

How’s The Market?

Our spring market was delayed a couple of months and August volume has been over 40% higher than last year. Below is a quick look at a few market trends. The first chart gives you an idea of how much of our housing was constructed during each decade. Yes, we have lots of wonderful prewar and postwar homes!

These two charts below show recent price trends diverging based on whether the property is a house or a condo, and urban or with more land. Single family homes have seen an overall increase in value, those with easy access to outdoor space are selling at a premium.

Around the Bay Area, condo markets have typically been softer than house markets since shelter-in-place first came into effect this year. The chart below shows a trend in declining prices the last few months.

Oakland has the largest number of home sales in the East Bay, with condos making up about 20% of the sales. It’s a good time to buy a condo with sales often a little slower than last year.

Sellers sometimes ask about overseas buyers. Although this has never been a significant demographic in the inner east bay, the overall number of overseas real estate investors in America has declined.

foreign buyers

And finally, the refinance market is booming with appraisals taking far longer than usual… can rates go any lower?

My recent listings and sales of a variety of homes built in various decades:

2468 Best Avenue
Maxwell Park
2 Bed | 1 Bath

2809 Fulton Street
LeConte
3 Bed | 2 Bath

624 Parkside Court
Berkeley Hills
3 Bed | 2.5 Bath

2048 12th Avenue
Clinton
4 Bed | 2.5 Bath

5206 Proctor Avenue
Upper Rockridge
4 Bed | 3.5 Bath

Do contact me if you have any questions regarding buying or selling, I’m happy to be a resource to you and your family and friends!

The rebound in market activity continues…

Median house sales price hits new quarterly high! Here is the July 2020 report for Oakland, Berkeley, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond.

Despite the ongoing health and economic crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the real estate market made a dramatic recovery from the steep decline in April. The median house sales price hit a new high in Q2, and around the Bay Area, high-end homes, in particular, have seen very strong demand. Depending on the statistic, a few charts below reflect the market in Alameda County as a whole.

  • The first chart below illustrates the big rebound in buyer demand from the initial shelter-in-place crash, as the number of listings accepting offers in June 2020 rose back up to normal on a year-over-year basis. Of course, closed-sales volume – a lagging indicator – was hammered in Q2 by shelter in place.
  • The large increase in sales activity in higher price segments is reflected in these next two charts.
  • 2020 began with low levels of inventory, and, though increasing significantly since the April drop, remains a bit lower on a year-over-year basis. Area house values, as measured by both median sales price and average dollar per square foot value, hit new highs in Q2.
  • Median house sales price trends by city: Remember that median sales price is not a perfect indicator of changes in fair market value, as it can be affected by a number of factors. Fluctuations are especially common in markets with relatively low sales volumes across a wide range of sales prices, such as in Piedmont and Kensington.
  • The condo market has been weaker than the house market, as measured by both sales activity and median sales price. This is a common dynamic around the Bay Area. It may be that prospective condo buyers – often younger and less affluent than house owners – have been more affected by the huge jump in unemployment. The desire by many buyers for outdoor space during COVID-19 is also influencing values.
  • Overbidding of asking price has declined somewhat – partly due to changed home showing protocols with shelter in place – but the average sales price to list price percentage in the region remains by far the highest in the Bay Area.
  • And mortgage interest rates have continued to decline!
I am always happy to be a sounding board for sellers and buyers and happy to consult with you in this more challenging environment!

YES, you can sell and buy a home during shelter in place!

Marketing:

We have multiple options for marketing homes with shelter in place, and more options as rules relax. Virtual tours, both prerecorded professional and an agent walk through.
I attend online broker tours twice a week where properties and pricing and market conditions are discussed with in our local agent community.
Digital marketing presence has increased, and so have the number of homes being marketed within the brokerage community without ever going on the open market.

Contractors, stagers, gardeners and photographers are all now allowed to prepare homes for market in our local counties!


Financing:

For buyers it’s more important than ever to speak with lenders and get your pre-approval process completed.
In this market, many listing agents are requiring a copy of a pre-approval before allowing the buyers agent to show their listing.

Many appraisers are currently not accessing the interior of the home, they do a drive by or a desk top review, consult the public records and call agents for information on recent sales and the subject property to help assess the value.
Some lenders are waiving appraisals.


Showings:

Open houses in the East Bay are currently a thing of the past. Prior to showings most agents require waivers to be signed acknowledging risk factors due to COVID-19 and for the buyers to provide the signed disclosure cover along with a lender letter or proof of funds.

In other words, buyers need to be serious!


Pricing:

Know that pricing strategy has shifted dramatically. 
With limited availability to see homes buyers and agents want to focus on properties that are priced within the buyers capacity.
The majority of homes are being listed closer to what the sellers expect and will take, or they are declaring at least a bottom line and a range


Inspections:

The recent norm in the East Bay has been for sellers to provide inspections.
In competition buyers are still writing with few or no contingencies.
For the Oakland/Berkeley areas this is frequently the norm even during shelter in place. Inventory is low, there are serious buyers out there.
A decent percentage of homes are still getting multiple offers.


Escrow:

Regular legal updates and forms are being provided by the California association of Realtors to give principles options on how to address Corona virus related issues.
A variety of circumstances could adversely affect an escrow including financing, investigation and health related issues.
Many contracts are written allowing for potential delays.


Days on the Market…the chart below indicates a faster market than last year for homes going into contract.

Buyers should not expect to hang around and wait if they really want to get into contract!  “Transparent” pricing means sellers often take offers after a few days.

DOM

 

The chart below shows the April median price of SOLD homes almost unchanged.
median price

SELLERS:

  • Sellers should consider if they are ready to sell now, dealing with what we know, or want to roll the dice and wait for the unknown.
  • They may want to consider their price range and location and overall desirability of their home.
  • The best homes in the highest demand locations tend to do well in any market.
  • Many resources but not all are now again available to help prepare homes for sale. Be prepared for safety related COVID disclosures and
    precautions and guidelines during the prep and sale period.
  • Most buyers in this market are expecting a discount in anticipation of future declines in value and the fact that an unsettled market carries additional risk.
  • Sellers will succeed if their expectations are closely aligned with the buyers.

 

BUYERS:

  • Buyers should carefully consider whether it makes sense to move at this time.
  • Most importantly, they want to be rock solid financially and motivated to move. For some, the timing is good, they have the time to look and may already have a body of market knowledge behind them.
  • More than ever, buyers need an experienced realtor for advice. Listing agents want their sellers in contract with solid partners who can navigate through a potentially bumpy transaction.
  • Financing requires regular check ins. Underwriters can update guidelines. Buyers should have a safety net if their financing is in anyway borderline.
  • Do not expect to get into contract with an amazing deal!
    There are plenty of buyers with solid jobs who are ready to compete on little inventory and knowing they are not buying at the top of the market is reassuring to many.

As always, I’m happy to be a resource for those considering a move and to offer advice in the current environment! 

Cartoon sort while you SIP

For most of us life is not what it was a month ago, and many of us are experiencing daily adaptations to our work and lifestyle.

I will have data next week but here is a general update on ” The SIP rules!”

The March 28, 2020 amendment made to the Federal list of “essential services” now includes Residential Real Estate Services.

Bay Area Counties, including Alameda and Contra Costa, have not adopted the federal amendment and more stringent restrictions remain in place.

We currently must continue to adhere to all State,County and City restrictions, these include:

No Open Houses

No in person showings 

Restricted access and interaction with stagers, painters, contractors, movers etc

• Very restricted access to properties, especially occupied homes.
• Many Appraisals are moving to desktop and drive by so they do not go into homes.
• Signings are with Notaries, those working use gloves and masks, as an agent I attend        mine on Zoom.
A great deal of our client interaction can be executed virtually. Prospective sellers prepare videos so we can get an idea of the property and we can access sale data and discuss options in the evolving environment.
With buyers we can review videos of properties for sale if these are available.
In theory, it is possible to enter into contract subject to visiting the property and inspections.

There are many variables depending on the circumstances and principles! 

Our current policies are likely to change during the next week or so and may be relaxed to some degree. 

Do contact me if you have any questions!

If you are preparing to move or not….you could take time to have as my Mum used to say “A jolly good sort out!” and of course….. keep what’s important to you!

As always, I’m happy to be a resource for those considering a move and to offer advice in the current environment.

 

 

IMG_3146

 

 

 

I hope if you are home you are enjoying walks and your garden is doing well!

A BIG Thank you to those on the front lines in essential services.

 

 

 

So how is the real estate market this week?

 

This morning our brokerage held our second virtual office meeting with 70+ agents attending.
We’re getting better at this!
I suspect still plenty of jammies as only the brave showing their early morning faces!

Broker opens and Weekend open homes in the Inner East Bay cities are cancelled. and showings are delayed during the shelter in place period. 

Multiple versions of COVID-19 addendum to contracts are being reviewed.
For buyers and sellers in or just going into contract the question is… how long will this take?
Appraisers as independent contractors call their own shots, principles are planning for longer escrows, one might say more normal escrow periods for most of the country!
We have become used to 21 days or less, and now are probably looking at 45-60 days, unless it’s a cash transaction.

The past few days agents report most of the listings are still selling with multiple offers and are writing offers in competition. A few sellers are not getting their price and are withdrawing homes from the market.
Buyers are mostly falling into a couple of camps. Those who are not confident enough to proceed, and those who are, but for the most part would like their COVID-19 discount!
However, a few really unique homes still hit record prices in the last few days.

The most volatile part of the market right now is the financing. Even seasoned lenders are getting hit with surprises. Buyers must keep in touch with lenders.
Rates have taken a jump up and are very volatile.

 

With 18 years in the industry, including at least one significant down and up market, I offer some tips below for sellers and buyers!

 

TIPS FOR PROSPECTIVE BUYERS!!

  • Take this opportunity to line up your financing early, you can talk with lenders and do the application all online.
  • Have your funds liquid so you don’t have to do a last minute rethink on a purchase!
  • Pick an experienced agent with access to off market properties and the local agent network. It is critical to have an adviser based in your target areas, more so than ever in these times, ask for recommendations. We can  do phone and video meetings.
  • Talk with friends about what they appreciate in their neighborhood and do some soul searching around what lifestyle is important to you and what are your ” must haves” and what is “negotiable“. This helps me too as your agent!
  • If you cannot visit homes, do some online research into neighborhoods and when allowed visit the different east bay neighborhoods which might work for you.
  • You may have more time and availability to do initial research right now.
  • Your agent can update you on market dynamics and when it starts to open back up.
  • Be wary of listing aggregator information and valuations. They are not local experts,
    they just aggregate data. A home is always about more than data!


TIPS FOR PROSPECTIVE SELLERS!!

  • It’s a good time to be editing your possessions and sorting out what to keep! This is frequently the most time consuming pre move job for sellers.
  • Figure out where you are going to move to, do initial research. Realtors are always happy to have phone consultations and send data to potential clients regarding their area of expertise.
  • Pick an experienced agent with a solid brokerage and a good local agent network.
  • Your realtor is VERY happy to be a resource and offer advice on what to do as you get your home ready for a sale. In many instances, do nothing, just get ready to pack!! Consult your agent before spending a bean on anything unless it is SO important to you that you’re doing it anyway!
  • Remember when you sell, your taste may not be what gets you the highest price. The buyer is who you want to care about and your agent will have a better idea of what is important to them.
  • Be realistic about values... no one is forcing you to sell (usually) and you can refuse offers that don’t make sense. Keep in touch with your realtor.
  • Do remember your realtor is a fiduciary; we are paid to give the best advice we can given current client and market circumstances. Good agents don’t just want “a deal” 
  • Be wary of listing aggregator information and valuations. They are not local experts,
    they just aggregate data. A home is always about more than data!


I am always happy to be a sounding board for sellers and buyers and happy to
consult with you in this more challenging environment!

Warmly,

Jackie

 

IMG_5707

So how is the real estate market weathering COVID-19 ?

This morning our brokerage held our first virtual office meeting with 60+ agents attending. Those of use who were dressed had the video on ( I know many think we just work on weekends but much of our best work is early and late and in jammies)!

With the new shelter in place ruling, Broker opens and Weekend open homes in the Inner East Bay cities should not be taking place for at least the next few weeks and very possibly longer.

Current escrows may become delayed as we figure out which of the many players involved may still be available.
Title companies are scrambling to figure out how to close escrows with County recorders offices potentially not staying open, and various levels of e-recording available.

Most realtors, many appraisers, stagers and many other players are independent contractors. No benefits, regular pay or paid vacation but a bigger say in how we work.
So don’t expect complete consistency on how things play out!

Much of our work is going to be considered non-essential and will require complying with the mandated shelter in place.

Agents are already marketing more extensively within the brokerage community
and have been arranging private showings for their clients.
The past few days most of our listings are still selling with multiple offers and we are writing offers in competition but not showing property will be a challenge,


MARKET UPS AND DOWNS!!

The most common open house buyer question during the 2008 meltdown was
“Have we hit bottom yet?!”
Some of those buyers did not buy a home until well after the market was up above its previous levels and subsequently paid more…. and lost years of building equity.

We have seen similar appx 10 yr up and down cycles repeat for the last few decades.When you buy, ideally it is buy and hold for at least 6+ years so you can ride out any downward turn and recoup costs of sale.

Renting or staying put may be a better option for some people. Not everyone should move.  There are always buying opportunities in times like this, but it’s good to know you can ride out a storm.

 

1996-2019 VALUE TRENDS

Oakland-Berkeley-Est-Median-Values_Zillow

I am always happy to be a sounding board for sellers and buyers and happy to
consult with you in this more challenging environment!

Jackie

 

 

 

 

spring rates limerick2

 

  • Rates are LOW!!   
  • Inventory is LOW!!


Yes, when we arrive at an open house buyers are often standing in line! 

This early in the season buyers should be prepared for some properties not to appraise. So make sure to run the numbers and figure out whether that will work for you or not if your appraisal comes in low.

Listing prices are still frequently very under value, and competition is often high.
We are seeing instances of low appraisals where buyers are willing to make up the difference because they want the property and it is worth it to them.

As a buyer, if you have waived the appraisal contingency  (not uncommon in this market) you do want to be mentally and financially prepared for this!!

As a seller, even if the buyer waived all their contingencies, best not to count your pennies until you have close escrow!

This is a great time of year to either be preparing a home for sale, or starting you search.
I’m always happy to speak with potential clients and see if I can assist with your move!

 

Welcome to 2020!

The start of a new year is always an interesting time in real estate!

Will the market be the same or different from the Fall?

Will buyers be raring to go or sitting on the fence?

The first open houses of the year in Oakland and Berkeley indicate buyers are out looking…on a sunny day open homes have been busy!
Inventory at the close of 2019 was at record lows.

We have only had 1 year where our office had  less to sell at the end of the year!

Signs point to another active Spring.

Stagers and painters are booking up, several are booked out until March.…so do get ready and put a plan in action if you are considering a move in 2020!

For those of you wondering where we are in the historical cycle here is some
perspective going back  to the  80’s and 90’s ( yikes! ) hang in there if you’re afraid of buying at  the top as over time trend is always up!

As well as median prices and that ever important question of “overbids”!

Click on the Clouds of one of my favorite views for end of the year data!

As always I’m happy to be a sounding board and help you figure out what is best for your situation, buying or selling or both!

 

So you’re considering purchasing property in the Oakland-Berkeley area and maybe renting out rooms (house hacking) or buying a duplex or a place with an ADU?

Essentially becoming a landlord of some sort, and as a property owner you would get to do absolutely what you want with your property, right???

…. Well…. not so fast!

Owning property in the Bay Area is a wonderful privilege and invariably a good long term investment, but venture into rental income with your eyes open.

The housing market is tight, the laws are very specific, there are folks who may take advantage (sad but true), and the penalties for missteps can be Draconian!

Do yourself a HUGE favor if you have not purchased yet, and consult with a local qualified landlord tenant attorney so you know the lay of the land!

If you currently own property, join a LOCAL landlord advocacy group and consult with legal staff. These groups are an EXCELLENT resource for landlords.

Many homeowners become accidental landlords. A relocation enabled them to keep a property and rent it out, or they decided to rent out a room or convert part of their home to a rental.

And for the House Hackers…roommates? Can you raise the rent? Can you get them out?
This is current day California land of legislation… not the TV Wild West of my youth!
I’d suggest look into what you can and cannot do.

Whilst many Bay area cities including Berkeley and Oakland have had various levels of rent control and tenant eviction restrictions in place for years, the number and type of properties which fall under these restrictions has recently increased.

Many cities have “Just cause eviction” ordinances.

As a landlord in most cases you cannot blithely give your tenant notice  because you want to sell the property…. this is likely NOT a ” just cause” for eviction.

A local attorney who specializes in this area of the law can advise owners of options if they wish to sell. Several cities, including Oakland now have minimum mandatory buyout requirements for negotiating tenant move outs.

I regularly work with property owners who wish to sell and in conjunction with their landlord tenant attorney we figure out what works best for all involved.

Being a property owner is great, but know your rights and obligations… and stay safe!