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Archive for the ‘Market update’ Category

This week I attended our quarterly Top Producers referral group meeting in San Jose. Agents from as far away as Sacramento, Carmel,Tahoe and Davis shared updates on their current market conditions and a variety of real estate related topics.

If you are looking to buy or sell outside of the Bay Area, I can usually provide referrals to great agents!

We have 30 year veterans and Millenials in the mix so it’s a nice cross section of different styles and approaches to real estate!

In general, the theme was one of “low inventory” with some markets slowing and others as competitive as ever, and “what is the next generation going to be able to afford?”
( Yes, we are only too aware of the down side to declining affordability)

The Oakland- Berkeley area seems to be one where buyers have become more selective this last quarter. Great houses are garnering the attention and high prices. Less than A+ or less strategically priced homes are sometimes only getting one offer or sitting. 

As we get into the holiday season it can be a good time for buyers who see potential in those “less than perfect” or less optimally marketed properties!

To check on the stats from the last quarter, Q3 -click below.

Pricing for competition is key….. sorry… no end in sight for those under market list prices at this time!!

 

 

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August’s Monthly report…

Buyers….Come on back!

Most local agents tell tales of buyers frustrated by their inability to get into contract and walking away from the market.
Inventory has been so low and there are not enough homes to meet the demand.
Trekking over from the city at the end of a long day or giving up chunks of each weekend, especially if you have a little one in tow is less fun after your 3rd or 4th rejected offer!
But wait………there’s good news! 
Inventory just did the annual post Labor Day pick up and we now have 2 consecutive weeks of more homes to choose from!
So buyers may do well to get back in the saddle and give it another shot!!

If you, or anyone you know, are thinking of getting into the market I’d love to hear from you! Now may be a good opportunity to get into contract!

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As agents we are constantly reviewing data and discussing market conditions, and at the end of the year we try to predict the future!

Let’s get as close as possible to that proverbial Crystal Ball!

Pacific Union CEO Mark A. McLaughlin and economists John Burns, Dean Wehrli, and Selma Hepp teamed up to present the third in a series of live economic forecasts.

economic-forecast-video

I’m happy to speak with you regarding your real estate goals in 2017!

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The First Quarter round up!
Q1 2016 click image

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For some uncanny reason the last 2 Oakland homes I lived in are on the market at the same time!

When we sold our home in 2006 we caught the market as it was starting to drop, not catching the highest price but happy we timed it when we did.

Below are charts showing the rise and fall of several east bay neighborhoods from 2005-2015!

If you’ve been waiting to sell the sellers market does not usually last for a very extended period of time!

 

Berkeley home prices have soared to new heights in the last couple of years. Always tight on inventory, prices never dropped as significantly as in some areas.

berkeley historic sales

 

Piedmont prices have risen astronomically, with quality homes, easy commutes and schools ranked top 10 in the nation.

Piedmont historic sales

 

Rockridge homes have increased significantly in value due to proximity to urban amenities and the desire for convenience.  Their fall was less precipitous than in many areas.
Rockrdige historic sales

 

Glenview homes are being sought by buyers priced out of Crocker Highlands.
glenview historic sales

 

Montclair homes rose a little more slowly with many buyers liking the good schools but preferring walkable locations with a more urban vibe.
Montclair historical prices

 

94602 includes The Oakmore, The Laurel and Dimond areas. Many of these homes are selling at record highs with the less pricey areas within 94602 still moving up in value.
Areas below MacArthur took a big hit when prices fell and had more ground to recover.

94602 historic prices

Redwood Heights has been slower to rise in value, despite the well regarded elementary school there is no central destination which drives other neighborhood prices.
redwood heights historic prices

 

Many homes in the 94605 zip code have not overtaken the height of the market but many have fully recovered values.
94605 historic sales

Expect to see the lower end of the market and condos continue to climb in 2015 as buyers are priced out of neighborhoods and compete for the more moderate end of the market.

 

 

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Cash offers and sale data

Cash offers and low inventory are creating a consistent story of heavy competition in all price ranges.

Looking at the chart for this years activity , the number of cash transactions is pretty staggering. This is just the closed deals.

The actual number of cash offers is much higher. Every single county is showing at least 25% cash sales and some are closer to 50%.

No… this is NOT all overseas money! It’s investors, buyers who have sold to buy, those who figure the banks are paying peanuts and have savings, those who’ve been siting on the sidelines, those with great bonuses, the affluent, the relatives who tell their fortunate kids it’s a great time to buy and can help out!

Some buyers pay cash to compete and then refinance to take advantage of the 60 year low rates.

So how does a buyer compete against cash offers?

Their offer has to be even MORE compelling…e.g fewer contingencies and usually … a higher price.
It’s risk versus reward……yes, the seller will kiss the cash offer goodbye, but it had better be worth their while to wait longer and take the risk inherent with any loan.

The combination of low inventory and the competition with cash are pushing prices up at a very steep rate.

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Remember when the stock market crashed and for many months…. years afterwards!… if you were a baby boomer like me you couldn’t even open the retirement account statement…it went unopened into the trash…. better not to know!

Then prices started to move up and you could tentatively peek to see whether you were really going to have to work until you were 80 or 90!

So over to the East Bay real estate market at the start of 2013 and it’s less scary for homeowners to read the numbers! We still have plenty of homeowners who don’t have enough equity to sell, but the good news is that prices are consistently up across ALL price points.

snapshot for link to CC Data archive 4

As agents we’ve been feeling the buzz and seeing the results since the middle of last year, and now it shows in all the data.

Data isn’t everything but it’s one parameter in the market and nice to see more signs of a recovering economy.

Do call if you are interested in an opinion of value in 2013!

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